better than an image of Joe Paterno
It’s what the country has been waiting for – the Conference Chalk Big Ten Betting Preview is here. Our flagship conference is in transition – all of a sudden there are two divisions, Nebraska is now part of the fold, 5 new head coach’s data to compile, no Rich Rod to pick against – the list goes on. Change isn’t necessarily a good thing in the betting world, especially when trends are an essential part of your picking formula. But with the unknown comes some real opportunity and we’ll do our best to look into the crystal ball each week and make the right picks. For now, we’ve predicted the record, identified the top betting trend, and pointed out a game or two that should make fans nervous for each team in the conference.
LEADERS DIVISION
will CC icon Russell Wilson earn his one-year contract?
Wisconsin
Projected Finish: 10-2 (6-2 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 7-0 ATS to finish the season
Potential Land Mine: @ Illinois, November 19th
As mentioned in my previous analysis of the Big Ten’s future, no one is in better position to take over the conference than the Badgers, and if they can take out Ohio State in Columbus on October 29th, the division should be theirs. The schedule is tougher this season, as Wisconsin has tough road games at Michigan State, Ohio State, and Illinois, plus Nebraska and Penn State will be competitive visitors. No one enjoyed the Badger money run as much as I did in 2010, hitting on all 6 Big Ten games to end the season, but a lot of people are calling for them to go 11-1 or even 12-0. That’s not going to happen, and with expectations like that it’ll be hard for the Badgers to cover massive spreads every single week.
Ohio State
Projected Finish: 9-3 (5-3 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 20-5-1 ATS last two seasons
Potential Land Mine: @ Michigan, November 26th
Judge Terrell Pryor all you want, but after covering 80% of his games the last two seasons he’ll be sorely missed by us. Ditto The Vest, who I always considered the best coach in college football. What does the new era mean for Ohio State? Hard to say, but this is still Ohio State and they’re still filled with blue chips. By the time Big Ten season rolls around Boom Herron will be back, Braxton Miller will have some snaps under his belt, and the offense could be ready to compete. The defense should remain stout as it always is. That said, it’ll be tough to confidently lay money on them until we see how September goes. But in a weak division, expect the aforementioned Wisconsin game to determine who heads to Indy.
Paul Petrino has told Scheelhaase to ignore anything Zook tells him
Illinois
Projected Finish: 8-4 (4-4 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 9-4 ATS
Potential Land Mines: @ Purdue, October 22nd, @ Minnesota November 26th
Zook threw us all a curveball last season, finishing 9-4 ATS and taking some away some of the heat we’d cast upon him. The optimism continues for Illinois this fall, with 13 returning starters including the Big Ten next’s star QB, Nathan Scheelhaase. He’s now in year 2 of OC Paul Petrino’s system, and with enough lineman and skill players returning around him, the offense could shine. The Illini could contend for the division title but with Ron’s track record I expect stumbles at Purdue and/or Minnesota. I’ll be more confident betting the Illini this season that in the past, but if Zook acts like Zook, don’t be surprised.
Penn State
Projected Finish: 6-6 (3-5 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 0-4 on Under to start season, 7-1 on Over to finish it
Potential Land Mines: @ Northwestern, October 22nd
It’s no secret how I feel about Joe Paterno hanging around, plus something has me feeling very uneasy about the quarterback situation. I’m not a believer in Matt McGloin – I think they caught lightning in a bottle with him, and I question the mental makeup of Rob Bolden. With 3 brutal games to finish the season (Home vs Nebraska, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin), the Lions will need to start hot to finish in the black, and I have a hard time seeing them not falter a bit. This team could be setup well for gambling, but only if you’re betting against them. The Penn State brand is worth a few free points by itself.
Danny Hope, pushing Zook for lead clown at Conference Chalk
Purdue
Projected Finish: 5-7 (2-6 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 4-7-1 ATS
Potential Land Mines: @ Indiana, November 26th
I had the Boilers pegged for 6 wins until this news came out. Purdue was doomed with injuries last season after a somewhat promising 2009, but in spite of another injury the team is all of a sudden loaded with experience. If they are to sniff any success, it’ll be because of the defense, a unit that returns 9 starters and was better than stats would indicate in 2010. But the QB situation is dicey (Robert Marve looks like a bust to me) and the team has almost no experience at wide receiver. Hope had success pulling upsets in his first year (winning at Michigan, beating Ohio State at home), so in the right spot the Boilers can be profitable. But this is also a program that’s lost twice to MAC teams at home the last two seasons, and sometimes I’ve got to question the things that come out of Danny Hope’s mouth. If the spread is big, buyer beware.
Indiana
Projected Finish: 4-8 (1-7 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 6-6 ATS
Potential Land Mines: None, since they’ll never be favored
While I’m impressed with Kevin Wilson thus far, I’m not sure if he’ll be able to do much this season, with only 9 starters returning and the least talented team in the conference. That said, none of the home games are absolute losses as Penn State, Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue could all be caught napping heading into Bloomington. From a betting perspective, I’m going to keep my eye on the Hoosiers, but making any big plays would just be foolish.
LEGENDS DIVISION
Nebraska
Projected Finish: 11-1 (7-1 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 2-4 ATS to finish season
Potential Land Mines: @Penn State, November 12th
Welcome to the conference, Nebraska – the league is now your oyster. It’s year 4 of the Pelini plan, and the Huskers enter the transitioned Big Ten beginning to peak as a program. The defense should be phenomenal, Taylor Martinez will hopefully be back to where he was at the start of last season, and here aren’t a lot of road games on the schedule that scare me. Winning in Madison will be difficult to pull off, but Minnesota shouldn’t be able to hang, Michigan is probably a year or two away, and Penn State is my pick to be in shambles. As long as they take care of business in Lincoln, a trip to Indy should be within their reach. As for the spread, don’t go too crazy in September laying points. But when Big Ten teams come to Lincoln I bet it pays.
can you score 100 with Sparty?
Michigan State
Projected Finish: 9-3 (6-2 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 4-0 ATS to start Big Ten season, 1-3 to finish
Potential Land Mines: Michigan, October 15th
If you’re going to fire up a game of NCAA ’12, I’d suggest the Spartans, whose combination of offensive skill players are the conference’s best. Mark D’antonio has become one of the best coaches in the conference, Kirk Cousins is the best QB, and I’ve been told this team is MSU’s most talented since 1999 when Plax Burress was roaming the sidelines. Unfortunately they have to travel to Lincoln October 29th, which could prove to be the difference between Indy and the Capitol One bowl.
Iowa
Projected Finish: 8-4 (5-3 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 1-4-1 ATS to finish regular season
Potential Land Mines: @Minnesota, October 29th
After a promising 2010 that ended with a thud, many have written off the Hawkeyes. It was an off-season filled with controversy – first the drug house scandal, then the 12 players being sent to the hospital. It’s all enough to see why people are bearish. But Kirk Ferentz seems to relish these situations, and when Iowa is perceived as the least sexy is often when they’re at their best. RB Marcus Coker should flourish behind an experienced line, the defense will be a rock as always, and if James Vandenberg is better than Larry Nee projects him, the Hawkeyes will be a tough out. Iowa is one of those teams that could make you a lot of money this year. The spreads will be manageable and with a good defense they could beat just about anyone.
any interest in playing wide receiver?
Michigan
Projected Finish: 8-4 (4-4 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 3-20 ATS in Big Ten games since 2008
Potential Land Mines: @Northwestern, October 8th
I love Brady Hoke, but I’m not going to go too nuts here. Denard hardly strikes me as the right guy for this offense and if anyone gets hurt on the O-line, watch out. Still, if Hoke can figure out how to use Robinson correctly and the defense adjusts to the 4-3, 9 wins isn’t out of the question. My guess is that in Big Ten play, the Wolverines will play to the status quo – they’ll take care of who they should, but don’t expect Hoke to pull out any major upsets. The Rich-Rod era was historically bad ATS, but don’t expect Vegas to do us any favors. The Wolverines will be expected to win right away and sneaking up isn’t an option.
Northwestern
Projected Finish: 6-6 (3-5 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 4-9 ATS
Potential Land Mines: @Indiana, October 29th
It’ll be a typical year for Northwestern – they’ll be pesky enough to pull out some wins but be vulnerable against just about everyone. Dan Persa was exceptional last season before rupturing his achilles, and with the announcement that he and his former backup are now even on the depth chart you’ve got to wonder if he’s not at full strength. The defense was pretty bad last season giving up 426 yards per game, but with 7 starters returning we should see improvement on this side of the ball. As for the bottom line, Northwestern was awful ATS last season, and the spreads will be indicative of that. If the defense improves, and Persa holds up, the Wildcats could end up being very profitable, more likely in the underdog role.
you might want to steal MarQueis Gray in the late rounds of your college football fantasy draft
Minnesota
Projected Finish: 5-7 (2-6 Big Ten)
2010 Betting Trend: 3-0 ATS to finish the year
Potential Land Mines: None, since they’ll never be favored
I’m very interested to see what the Gophers have this season. It’ll start and end with MarQueis Gray. The dual-threat QB was one of the highest recruited players in the country coming out of high school and has the talent to scare you. Pair him up with Duane Bennett and all of a sudden the backfield looks pretty imposing. What will kill Minnesota is the defense, which gave up an incredible 33 ppg in 2010. It’ll take some time and shrewd recruiting from Jerry Kill to fill in the gaps on that side of the ball. Kill has done well everywhere he has gone. I don’t expect him to turn the Gophers around right away, but eventually Minneapolis will be a tough place to play. As for the spread, I’m certain this team will play hard. If Vegas gives them too many points, they just might take advantage.