January 24, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Big Ten Hoops Roundup 1.24.2013

I don't usually play Big Ten teams, but when i do, I bring an extra bottle of scotch

Our weekly checkup on the flagship conference of our organization.  How did each program fare compared to this time last week?  Sorry Michigan, when you’re a blue chip, you’re expected to win the games like that over Minnesota.

Up: Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue

Down: Minnesota,Wisconsin, Northwestern, Penn State

Steady: Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska

  • After calling him out last week, Chalk Bad Boy Brandon Dawson simply murdered Wisconsin’s interior defenders en route to 18 points and 13 rebounds.  Hard to believe, but Wisconsin was only 7 of 18 from the free throw line, and missed a pair that would have taken the game to overtime.  Bo Ryan, you owe me half a  unit
  • This game exposed Wisconsin’s lack of general athleticsm as much as any game I can remember.  They just had no answer for an elite athlete like Dawson.  It’s games like this that make it easier to realize why they have a tough time in the tournament.
  • Didn’t I warn you that Fran McCaffrey was coming?  After coming back from 20+ down to backdoor the Buckeyes, Iowa has now posted covers in 8 of its last 10.  Plus, Chris Kingsbury is 2nd the Big Ten in 3 Point %
  • You know what I love about Indiana?  Their ability to wax bad teams at home.  One of the most frustrating things to watch in sports is a big favorite playing down to its competition, and the Hoosiers just don’t do that to bettors. But Penn State +26?  Vegas has caught onto this trend. It may be time to look the other way in Bloomington.
  • One team that’s done more than I expected, I admit, is the Buckeyes.  They do all the little things well, then Deshaun Thomas just scores all the points.  They may have let their guard down a bit against Iowa, but make no mistake, that team can play with almost anybody.
  • Michigan is certainly the Big Ten Team of the Year (to date), and when they pour it on, look out.  But is the offense about to cool off?  2 of the last 3 games have been grinders, though they responded well against Minnesota and got back into the 80s.  The Wolverines have become a very expensive play in the process, as the Purdue line opened at UM -16.5 in Crisler.
  • On Saturday, Purdue represented the conference will with a shelacking of Bob Huggins at Mackey, the second time in 4 years this has happened to him. The 27 point win was +23 on the cover, one not many people saw coming.  With his team figuring things out and now 4-2 ATS since Big Ten play began, I think it’s a good time to trust Matt Painter with the points.  Let’s go with 

Purdue +16.5

  • No Illini Guy, didn’t forget about you either. I’ll say this.  The dominant road win over Nebraska was pretty impressive. This is just the type of game Bruce Weber had been losing, and its the kind of games that real teams do not lose, and sometimes-special-ones win with exclamation
  • Bill Carmody – you look like you could use some of Huggins’ scotch.
  • Penn State and Nebraska – how about we just have Tim Miles arm-wrestle Pat Chambers to see who get’s the 11th seed?

 

Filed Under: B1G Power Rankings, Big 10 Hoops Picks, College Basketball, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,
January 17, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Big Ten Hoops Roundup, 1.17.2013

I've become irrelevant overnight, but at least I don't have to live in Champaign anymore

Now that it’s mid-January and all of the fallacies of the fall have been exposed, its high time to shift focus to college basketball.  I loosely follow certain teams in other power conferences, and I’m not afraid to sprinkle in mid-major underdogs, but my bread and butter is the land’s best conference.   There’s little question that the teams in the Big Ten are going to beat each other up this season and we could be looking at a 6 loss champion.  It should be a hell of a ride and let’s hope there’s not too much parody and home teams defend their turf.  Otherwise it’s going to be a betting mine field out there.

Once a week I’ll go around the conference and document my observations.  This week we’ll start with the 4-0 and hot-handed Wisconsin Badgers.

  • Gotta hand it to Bo Ryan.  Winning at Bloomington as a 10.5 point dog and extending a winning streak over Indiana to 11 is no small feat.  But I guess when you’ve had the same group of 6’8 white guys for 9 years, the team inevitably develops a grindy toughness.
  • Speaking of the Hoosiers, is Tom Crean a poor man’s Thad Motta?  He may be cleaning up in recruiting, but losses to coach’s coaches Bo Ryan and Brad Stevens show that he may be lacking in the Xs and Os department.  Someone needs to tell Victor Oladipo that Big Ten player “candidates” typically take more than 7 shots per game (but his shooting percentage is so good…nevermind, we should crown him now).
  • Tonight’s matchup between Michigan and Minnesota is the early conference season game of the year.  It’s hard not to like both of these teams. Michigan’s progression over the last four years has been storybook – from dangerously inconsistent to feisty underdog to powerhouse, all on the shoulders of NBA legends children.  In my eye, they’re the best team in the conference.  Minnesota will have something to say about that tonight in The Barn, and after a few years of poor luck it’s nice to see it all come together for good-guy Tubby Smith.  Both teams have played exceptionally well this season and I see this as the classic game to bet the home team, so give me Minnesota -3 with my first college hoops play of the season.
  • I know that Michigan State’s Brandon Dawson is a physical specimen, but I’m starting to question the guy’s character after the punch to Travis Carroll and now the fight with Adrian Payne.  Jabari Parker also passed on your school because of this guy, State fans.  Is he worth it?

  • is there any amount of money that can solve our problems?

    Still have no idea what to think about Ohio State.  I’ve been bearish on them as a Top-10 team all season, but they seem to be playing their best ball right now.  I still think Deshaun Thomas is the best player in the Big Ten and capable of carrying this team far.  I’m sure SEC-President-Wanna Be Gordon Gee would sign off on a mid-season juco import to take the Bucks over the top.

  • For Purdue fans, this year is a wash (CBI, anyone?) but AJ Hammons and Ronnie Johnson look like cornerstones for an elite team in two years.  But the practice of bringing in shooting guards that can’t shoot is something Matt Painter may want to reconsider.
  • Maybe it wasn’t Bruce Weber’s fault.  Illinois is starting to look like the same old Illinois, with losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin by a combined 40 points.  When your star is as inconsistent as Brandon Paul (7-28 in those 2 games), you’re going to have problems.  This team could use Meyers Leonard, but the Trail Blazer bench wouldn’t be nearly as warm without him.
  • Do I get a bit of evil satisfaction witnessing Northwestern slink back into oblivion?  I have no real interest in seeing the Mike Greenberg’s and Michael Wilbon’s of the world beat their chest over the pride of Evanston, so yes, yes I do.
  • Tim Miles, you’ve got your work cut out for you in Lincoln. At least Doc Sadler kind-of protected his home turf.
  • Tom Chambers, what’s it like to coach in a giant mausoleum?
  • Iowa – i’ve heard you have some game, and year 3 of the Fran McCafferey experience is a year to take a step.  But you’re sitting at 1-3 and the next 5 games are likely to produce 1-2 wins at best.  I hear the Big East is taking applications.

 

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December 31, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Say Goodbye to 2012…

you may have gone undefeated, but 2-5 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points didn't do a whole hell of a lot for me, Urban

Having just concluded my worst betting year since getting serious with this in business in 2008, I’m looking forward to flipping the calendar to a new year.  It wasn’t a kind fall to me to say the least as the philosophies I’ve built success on crumbled beneath my feet.  I’m treating this the American way and not taking accountability for my poor performance, instead opting to find other people and occurrences to blame .

Let me start by calling out the big dogs for not taking care of business.  The current AP top 10 combined to produce a 70-52-1 mark ATS (57.3%) heading into the bowl games.  Compare this to the results from the last 3 years and you’ll see where I am headed:

AP TOP 10 – COMBINED RECORDS ATS

  • 2012: 70-52-1 (57.3%, does not include bowl games)
  • 2011: 84-46-1 (64.6%)
  • 2010: 83-48 (63.3%)
  • 2009: 78-52 (60.0%)

If you’re like me and you expect the elite teams to not only win but cover, you probably feel my pain.

The other excuse I’ll make is a pathetic Big Ten, my backyard and the conference which is supposed to give me a competitive advantage in this cutthroat game.  While there’s no use in comparing ATS marks year over year (since they play each other), just take these facts into account:

  • After going 1-8 ATS betting Iowa games the last 2 seasons, Kirk Ferenz is on a personal mission to take away my house

    Ohio State, unbeaten and pounding it’s Urban-tattoo’d chest, gave up 49 points to Indiana and needed miraculous 4th quarters to beat bad teams Purdue and Cal at home

  • Michigan and Michigan State, the preseason conference favorites, sputtered to a 9-16-1 ATS
  • Nebraska, arguably the Big Ten’s best bowl-eligible team throughout the season, gave up 70 points to a team that finished with 5 losses and was at one point 0-4 ATS (Wisconsin)
  • The corpse formerly known as Penn State football lost at home to a MAC school to begin the season, then somehow went 6-2 in Big Ten play
  • Iowa fielded a team.   Kirk Ferentz continue to mystify my mind – destroying Minnesota when I took the points, upsetting Michigan State thus convincing me to bet them (and lose) against Penn State at home.  I’ve never wanted a coach of a team I care so little about fired so badly

The question now becomes 2013. If it’s anything like 2012 you probably won’t see this blog around in 2014.  I’ll probably be banking on the big dog trend to reverse itself, and while I don’t have the same faith that the Big Ten will get any easier to muddle through, I think we’ve hit the low point with the conference and someone will emerge as a team to trust next fall.

In any event, don’t expect a poor regular season deter me from making more picks.  Let’s start out 2013 with a bang – if the account’s small, throw it into this 2 team parlay.

NEW YEARS DAY PARLAY – PAYS +260

South Carolina -4.5 vs Michigan

Georgia -8.5 vs Nebraska

exhibit A: (see segment on Big Ten above)

exhibit B: South Carolina is a team I rode a bit to start the season before foolishly doubting their ability to slow down Clemson’s offense.  The defense is unquestionably elite and the bet here is on this unit, taking on a Michigan offense which is badly needs to move on from the Denard Robinson era (Devin Gardner’s 2-3 starts don’t count).  While the teams’ numbers are similar (great defense, average offense), South Carolina has more overall talent than Michigan, has had a few more years to mature as a program under their respective head coach, and has faced far superior competition this season.  I like the ‘Cocks by 10, and hoping Floyd Mayweather doesn’t make the same mistake twice.

exhibit  C:  The only question about Georgia in this one seems to be “are they motivated enough”.  I’m going with the theory that the NFL Draft’s Big Boards might provide a little motivation for the litter of NFL talent on the ‘Dawgs roster.  Just about the entire Georgia defensive side is on someone’s draft boards and I have serious questions about whether or not Taylor Martinez can crack this code.  On the other side of the ball, Aaron Murray has his critics, but to say he can’t sling the pill is a serious miscalculation, and oh yeah, the Black Shirts just gave up 70 to a team without a quarterback.

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December 14, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Mason’s Bowl Pick ‘em: Round 1

Arizona vs Nevada: who you takin'?

After my first regular season in the red, its redemption time here at The Blog, as I’ll try to develop a hot hand to ride through January 7th.  When it comes to betting bowls, throw out the normal variables. Home field and established conference pecking order give way to momentum and motivation.  In week 1, we’re taking relatively new coaches versus the old guard.  5 of the 6 plays are on coaches with just 1 or 2 years of experience at their school, meaning bowl wins could provide the small boost each program needs to keep the early momentum going.

Arizona -9 vs Nevada

A battle between 2 states leading the nation in both epic wasteland and club whores, this is actually a battle of two programs with very similar approaches to football – the spread-rush attack and apathy towards playing D.  While the Wolfpack may have been a cover machine when Colin Kaepernick was running the show, Chris Ault limps into this one with a 3-9 mark ATS and losing (straight up) 4 out of 5.  Also take into account that Nevada hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record all season and I see no reason they hang with the re-invigorated Rich Rod. Matt Scott has a field day and this one probably goes Over too.

Toledo +10.5 vs Utah State

Look, we all agree that Gary Anderson is the best coach west of Nick Saban and east of Chip Kelly, but giving 10 in a bowl game to a feisty 9-3 team from a better conference isn’t a winning formula.  The Rockets can pile up the yardage and with this being its 3rd straight bowl, the program knows how to handle itself in the bright lights of Boise.  No prediction of a win here but Toledo keeps it close.

San Diego St +3 vs BYU

Close call on this one, as BYU’s D is legit and Bronco Mendenhall is one of the least appreciated yet really good coaches I can think of.  But the Aztecs are simply on fire, having won 7 straight and covered 6 of those.  You saw what happened to New Mexico when Rocky Long left, maybe we should be paying closer attention to this guy.

Pete Lembo has a 94-45 career record and just took Ball State bowling...it's time to take this guy seriously

Ball State +7 vs Central Florida

Sign me up for the 9-3 ATS team getting a touchdown on the neutral field almost any day.  The Cards are another red-hot team listed as the underdog, having won 6 straight to close out the season.  Central Florida, on the other hand, has the feel of a team that went through the motions this season, taking care of a weaker-than-usual C-USA but not really coming up with a signature win.  Something tells me Ge0rge O’Leary won’t be as hungry as Pete Lemb0 here, I like Ball State in the upset.

Louisiana Lafayette -6 vs East Carolina

When in doubt, take Mark Hudspeth in his own backyard.

Boise State -5.5 vs Washington

You’d better think twice before betting against  Chris Peterson against a BCS-conference foe.  While I’ve been bearish on the Bronco’s offense all season, Joe Southwick has thrown 7 TDs to 0 picks the last 3 games, and the defense is still exceptional.  Washington never really took the next step this year the way I thought they would, and the player’s can’t be that motivated after a wishy-washy season.

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November 15, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Indiana vs. Penn State

Hello again and welcome back to Co-ed polls at Conference Chalk. This week we have a match-up that might not get much love from a national television audience but I for one would be willing to give either of this week’s contenders some love. I think my mind is made up due to strength in numbers but you never really know do you?? That’s why it’s time you tell us! Who wins?

Filed Under: College Football
November 9, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Mason’s Week 11 College Football Picks

Mike Leach has no problem throwing this group of non-Leach recruited players to the wolves

5 games, 2 formulas: bet against the sinking stones and let the home field take care of a relatively even matchup.

2 UNITS

UCLA -16.5 @ Washington State So much for the (mild) progress the Cougars made under Paul Wulff. The Mike Leach experience gets an F so far, as the high-powered attack has averaged a meager 11.5 ppg over the last 4 weeks.  This doesn’t bode well in hosting lead-footed Jim Mora Jr, whose Bruins put up 66 a week ago.

Central Florida -13.5 @ UTEP While the George O’Leary-Mike Price coaching matchup might be the most comical on the board, its fairly one-sided, as O’Leary has turned UCF into a mid-major power and Price has driven UTEP deeper into the ground that they’ve ever been.  The Knights have won 5 in a row and make it 6 come Saturday in non-competitive fashion.

Notre Dame -19 @ Boston College The Irish have had trouble covering as chalk since the first week of October, but the Eagles are the worst team they have faced since Navy.  BC’s run defense is paper-thin and ND should be able to score, a lot.  It’ll be on Chase Rettig to keep up, but against the stout domer defense I don’t see if.  It doesn’t hurt that Brian Kelly needs as many style points as he can get.

Tennessee -3 vs Missouri Two teams with contrasting styles – Tennessee can score but doesn’t play defense, while Missouri plays a physical brand of D but have an uncanny ability to elude the end zone on offense.  Tyler Bray is hot – 9 TDs to 1 INT the last two games, and with the game in Knoxville I anticipate the Vols to be clicking and scoring.  Can Missou keep up?  From what I saw of James Franklin on the road last week, I don’t see it.

Ole Miss -2.5 vs Vanderbilt It’s tough to go into an SEC stadium at night as an underdog and come out with the win – especially when the host is 7-2 ATS. There’s a bit of a resurrection on Oxford this season as the Rebels provide a balanced offense and a defense that’s good enough to get it done.  Vanderbilt will hang close in this one but Freeze will have something up his sleeve to get the W and the cover.

Filed Under: ATS Picks, College Football, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
November 7, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Northwestern at Michigan

This week we’re looking at an old school Big Ten match-up. Northwestern at Michigan, could we get any more plain Jane? I realize that is a disparaging comment but let’s be serious, a pretty girl at either of these schools would most certainly be a visitor. These two are the hottest that I could find, so as always, you all be the judges.

 

 

Filed Under: College Football
November 2, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Mason’s Week 10 College Football Picks

on Saturday night AJ McCarron sheds the "game manager" moniker for good

2 UNITS

Alabama -8 @ LSU Time to dip your head into the Crimson Kool-Aid bowl.  All the talk about defense but the best player on the field might be AJ McCarron

Oregon -8.5 @ USC Too much speed for an overrated USC defense

Mississippi State ML (+240) vs Texas A&M Payout potential is too good to pass up on a really good home team with a head coach that we can trust

West Virginia -4 vs TCU Not sure how I feel about the significant line drop, but with 2 weeks to get their heads straight I see a turnaround game for the Mountaineers

Army vs Air Force U60.5 When the academies square off, the point total tends to be lower than this
Vanderbilt -6.5 @ Kentucky That bump on the pavement isn’t a pothole, it’s Joker Phillips’ dome and it’s time to stomp on it.
Arkansas State -4.5 @ North Texas Gus Malzahn?  He’s done it before, why the heck not
Filed Under: ATS Picks, College Football, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,
October 25, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Mason’s Week 9 Picks

There are plenty of guys who can go on the road and ruin an opponents unbeaten season, but Munchie Legaux isn't one of them

You’ve stopped by at the right time.  Now 9-4-1 over the last three weeks I am a man on a mission to pay for your kids’ Christmas presents.  5 more games in this the last week of October.

2 UNITS

Louisville -3.5 vs Cincinnati

If Munchie Legaux can’t get it done in the Glass Bowl, how can we possibly expect him to hang at  Papa Johns Stadium on a Friday night?  The Cincinnati fan base was already all over Legaux before last week’s awful performance and things are going to get a little worse before they get better.  Heading on the road to take on a defense coached by Charlie Strong is quite the mismatch, even if Louisville is churning out wins-but-not-covers at a record pace.  With Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, the lights, and the undefeated record to protect, I love Louisville by many more points than 3.5.

Oklahoma -11.5 vs Notre Dame

I’ve watched enough Notre Dame football this season to know I don’t want to watch any more, with an offense only a priest could love. While that may not matter at home against inferior teams or quarterbacks that play right into your game plan, Norman, OK on a Saturday night is a whole different story.  I don’t see how Notre Dame puts up more than 10-13 points against a really good D in this environment, and while I do trust the Irish defense, Landry Jones is just playing too well right now.  Outside of Alabama and Oregon, I might take Oklahoma against any team in the country right now. and it’s time for the Irish to lose.

Penn St +1 vs Ohio State

I saw enough bad football from the home team on Saturday at the ‘Shoe to recognize that OSU is fatally flawed.  The offense is way too one-dimensional and inconsistent and the D leaves a lot to be desired.  I didn’t think I’d be saying this for 5 years, but they’re about to run into a buzz saw in Happy Valley.  Bill O”Brien has the Nittany Lions playing to that enormous chip on their shoulder, having won 5 and covered 6 straight.  Penn State’s D will contain Braxton Miller (if he even plays) and Matt McGloin will continue on his path to redemption after not reporting that kid getting raped in the shower.

1 UNIT

I'll take the guy who isn't $40 Million in debt

Hugh Freeze ML (+200) over John L Smith

I’m riding the coattails of Conner Anderson on this one, and what’s not to like?  Freeze has made Ole Miss dangerous again and is 16-4 ATS as a college football head coach.  John L Smith found a way to lose to a Sun Belt team at home with one of America’s most talented rosters.  At a neutral site, this is a coin flip at worst, give me the odds.

TCU +7 @ Oklahoma State

I admittedly haven’t watched much Horned Frog football this season, so that said I’m keeping this as 1 unit versus 2. But giving Gary Patterson points is usually a bad idea.  While the results have been a mixed bag, the defense looks great on paper (allowing only 313 ypg) and Trevone Boykin has provided a bit of a spark.  The Cowboys seems like a house of cards to me right now without a QB (both have been hurt) and I like TCU to hang in, maybe even steal the win.

Filed Under: ATS Picks, College Football, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,
October 25, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Florida vs. Georgia

Hello again from Conference Chalk HQ! This week its a 2 on 1 match-up for the coed polls, that said I’m not sure that the 2 have the advantage. I’m pretty sure a gator could eat a bulldog but what about these lovely ladies? Who wins this week fellas?

Filed Under: College Football
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