April 3, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Final Four Picks ATS (04.06.2013)

Karen Sypher demands a cover or she'll go public

Karen Sypher demands a cover or she’ll go public

And then there were two (people in that italian restaurant that night).  If Rick Pitino can lock in this title, the god-fearing people in the commonwealth of Kentucky can finally forgive their coach.

Michigan -2 vs Syracuse

It’s a real possibility that the Wolverines sneak away with the title here, as the offensive juggernaut is firing on all cylinders. It’s no longer Trey Burke plus whoever happens to be hot; you’ve a starting lineup of guys capable of scoring in the 20′s and a newfound post presence in Mitch McGary.  After hanging 166 between two elite defenses, Syracuse is going to have a tough time keeping Michigan in the ’70s.  The question then becomes, can Syracuse keep up?  I don’t see it, as the Orange win with D and aren’t equipped to win in a shootout.  The Big Ten gets back at Jim Boeheim and the dream continues in Ann Arbor.

Louisville -10.5 vs Wichita State

The bad news for the Wolverines titles hopes is that the overall #1 seed is playing like, well, the #1 overall seed.  3 of Louisville’s wins are by 20+ and led at the half by 15 in the other before Oregon made a run to keep it respectable.  While the horrific Ware injury means the Cardinals are down a player, the team may get the emotional lift it needs to make the dream a reality.  Wichita State has had an awesome run but Lousville is just too good.  This is a game the Shockers could keep close until the 8 minute mark, but then Louisville blow the doors open and win by 15.

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March 30, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Elite Eight Picks ATS (03.30-03.31.2013)

can the world handle a manic Richard Lewis? If this concerns you (and it should), pray for his alma mater OSU to cover today

can the world handle a manic Richard Lewis? If this concerns you (and it should), pray for his alma mater OSU to cover today

Only 8 teams and 7 games left, so might as well start taking a side in each one.  It’s just more fun (if not expensive) that way, but we do this first and foremost for the entertainment…right?  All jokes aside, I feel good about the first 3 picks. I’m with Richard Lewis on this one – pray for chalk.

Syracuse vs Marquette O127.5

Hard to pick a winner here as I’m a firm believer that conference foes facing off in the tournament breeds unpredictability.  With that though maybe the Marquette money line should be considered, but since I don’t firmly back that one up, I’m eyeing a low total as my play.  Both teams are coming off rather significant upsets and you can expect players’ shots to be falling.  I’d be shocked if both sides don’t hit 60 and at least on side to get into the high 60s or 70s.  The low end of my projection is right around the 127 range so I’ll take the Over.

Ohio State -4.5 vs Wichita State

We’re relying on the Buckeyes to wave the Big Ten flag today, with a reasonable request: take care of the inferior opponent.  We all know about Aaron Craft’s leadership, DeShaun Thomas’ sick skill set, and the rest of the collective bunch coming together, so I’ll spare the soliloquy.  Simply put, I can’t see us getting anything more than Ohio State’s A-Game.  Rest assured, we’ll also get the Shockers A-Game, but can it match up?  While the collection of wins over Gonzaga, VCU, Creighton, and Pitt is nice, it doesn’t prove they can take out an elite outfit.  The play here is cut from a cloth we’ve sewn here before: Chalk brings its A Game and takes care of business.

Florida vs Michigan O131

The game and perhaps the total comes down to the cage match between Michigan’s O and Florida’s D.  Both units are supurb – the Michigan offense comes in at #1 in kenpom.com’s  Adjusted Offense category, while the Florida’s D checks in at #2 on the defensive side.  With the sudden coming of age of Mitch McGary, the Wolverines now have 5 guys who can put the ball in the bucket.  An elite defense only has so many answers, and I can’t see the Gators keeping Michigan Under 70.  The question is, can Florida get to 61? And are we really having to ask that question?  Billy Donovan’s goal isn’t exactly to muck up the game Bo Ryan style, and the reason I’m taking the Over versus the UM money line is because it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Gators hit 80. What I can’t see is a 62-55 , ’02 Big Ten type slugfest.  The Over is a solid play here.

Louisville -3.5 vs Duke

I’m including this one to square things up, but I don’t love it.  I can name plenty of reasons both sides could pull this off and I even took Duke in my.  Not a money play for me here but the Cardinals look like the tournament’s team to beat so I’ll side with them.

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March 27, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Second Week of Madness: Sweet 16 Picks ATS (03.28.2013)

combining two sports icons from the '80s stil produces results in 2013

combining two sports icons from the ’80s still produces results in 2013

To the surprise of no one, I was unable to keep up my 73% return rate, slipping to a 1-3 mark in the second round and netting a more balanced 15-8 mark ATS on the postseason.  While the money-printing machine may have temporarily run out of ink, there’s fresh supply on the way and plenty of time for me to digest these lines.  My pick today is a lot like my last pick, as I’m putting my faith in Shane Larkin and The U.

Miami -5.5 vs Marquette

Illinois gave the Hurricanes a hell of a game last time we tuned in but Miami showed a lot of heart pulling out the W.  The moxie should follow the team into DC and I’m once again expecting Miami’s best game.  As for the Buzz Williams gang…they’re lucky to be in the tournament after the improbable/miraculous win against Davidson.  I credit them for the Butler win. but its best wins of the season have been against Wisconsin, Georgetown, and Syracuse – all of which were at home, and 2 of which bowed out unceremoniously in round 1.  Barry Larkin’s genes > Big East basketball.

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March 24, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Madness, Day 4: Picks ATS (03.24.2013)

Gonzaga's tradition of blowing it in the tournament and crying about it continued on Saturday

Gonzaga's tradition of blowing it in the tournament and crying about it continued on Saturday

All those nice things we said about the A-10 must have gone to its head, as the league struck out yesterday with embarrassing performances from St. Louis and VCU and a close defeat to Butler.  The WCC continued to prove worthy of D-2 status as Gonzaga expectedly went down in flames.  The Big Ten continues to lead the pack and the Pac-12 is nipping at its heels, but a Creighton cover today maintains perfection for the Atlantic-10.

  • Big Ten 7-2
  • Pac 12 6-2
  • A-10 5-3
  • Missouri Valley 3-0
  • SEC 2-1
  • C-USA 1-1
  • ACC 2-2
  • Mtn West 2-3
  • Big East 4-7
  • Big 12 1-4
  • WCC 0-3
  • All Others 7-12

As for today's picks – I'm not seeing a lot on the board that I'm in love with.  4 games (Duke-Creighton, Florida-Minnesota, Ohio State-Iowa State, Kansas-North Carolina) feature favorites you can trust, but also underdogs playing well and capable of knocking the top dog from his perch.  Who really knows about San Diego State-Florida Gulf Coast, Indiana at 11.5 is too expensive for a volatile character like Tom Crean, and we might as well have the magic-8 ball tell us whether or not Marshall Henderson will be hitting.   So that leaves us with: Miami -6.5 vs Illinois Other then Louisville and probably Indiana, "The U", in my eyes, appears to be the most likely team to win the tournament.  It's been proven how balanced they are and as I eluded to in round 1, the team is focused and playing its best ball at the right time.  Simply put, I don't think this team can be denied, even by this Illinois program which is taking steps in the right direction.  If we get Miami's best game, Illinois just isn't good enough to hang, and I think that's what we'll see this evening.

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March 23, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Madness, Day 3: Picks ATS (03.23.2013)

Lil Penny will be sitting courtside today while his Memphis Tigers try and cash in on a +200 money line

Lil Penny will be sitting court side today while his Memphis Tigers try and cash in on a +200 money line

The only thing going better than me (I’m 7-1 ATS) right now is the Atlantic-10, which produced perfect in the first round, going 5-0 ATS and winning each game. The record improves to 6-0 if we count LaSalle’s play-in victory but I choose to ignore the play-in games as I don’t believe in  them.  Meanwhile, the Big Each continues to prove how truly overrated it is by limping to a 2-6 mark.  Here’ s a recap by conference (all records ATS).

  • A-10 5-0
  • Big Ten 5-2
  • Pac 12 3-2
  • Missouri Valley 2-0
  • SEC 2-1
  • C-USA 1-0
  • ACC 2-2
  • Mtn West 2-2
  • Big 12 1-4
  • Big East 2-6
  • WCC 0-2
  • All Others 7-11

Picks from the hot hand:

Memphis +5.5 vs Michigan State

Sure, Memphis has been under the radar due to its C-USA affiliation, and no one’s really paid them much attention since Calipari left.  But the Tigers are probably in the country’s top ten as far as athleticism and talent are concerned and can match up with Michigan State physically.  The team is also underrated defensively (checking in at 24th in Defensive Efficiency at kenpom.com) and I expect Dawson, Harris, and Payne to have to work for their points.  I see this as a low scoring, physical affair, likely won in the last few possessions.  5.5 is enough of a cushion for me.

Michigan vs VCU O143

I see this game as having the potential to be the most exciting matchup of the first two rounds.  Michigan can run-n-gun with the best of them, and we’ve been proven time and time again they’re not afraid to give up points either.  VCU can put the ball in the hoop to, as witnessed by the 88 points laid on hapless Akron the other night.  I fully anticipate both teams to get into the 70s, and with this one likely being close, overtime is also a possibility.

Wichita State +7 vs Gonzaga

Everyone is waiting for the ‘Zags to fall apart after barely beating a 16 seed, and though I don’t expect them to completely collapse they’re running into a team with a ton of confidence right now in Wichita State.  7 is a large margin for a competitive underdog and it’s just too many in this spot.  Take the points and expect a close game.

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March 22, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Madness, Day 2: Picks ATS (03.22.2013)

much to the chagrin of earl-90s Larry Johnson, the Mountain West had a poor showing yesterday

much to the chagrin of early-90s Larry Johnson, the Mountain West had a poor showing yesterday

Though half the country had forgotten of its existence, day 1 was a big one for the Pac-12, with the league producing a 3-0 mark straight up and ATS.  Just as impressive was the A-10′s 3-0 mark.  Here’ a complete breakdown of how the day went, by conference (all records ATS)

  • Pac 12 3-0
  • A-10 3-0
  • Big Ten 2-0
  • Missouri Valley 1-0
  • C-USA 1-0
  • Big East 2-2
  • Big 12 0-1
  • SEC 0-1
  • Mtn West 1-2
  • WCC 0-2
  • All Others 3-8

Today’s Plays (3-1 ATS so far)

North Carolina -4 vs Villanova

It’s been a nice year for Jay Wright, but North Carolina came of age in the conference season and enters with a bit of momentum after a solid showing in the ACC tournament.  The talent gap here is fairly significant, and if the Heels play to their potential Villanova should simply be outmanned.

Creighton -3.5 vs Cincinnati

People are going to fear Cincinnati in this spot due to its large-conference status, but Creighton is the better team with the best player on the floor in Doug McDermott. We should also take note that most of the top mid-majors (St Louis, VCU, Wichita State, Butler) looked very good yesterday, and the Missouri Valley has already made the Big East look bad once.

Miami -12 vs Pacific

The 10-14 point spread with in the 2/15, 3/14 matchup is right in my wheelhouse.  Miami seems as unlikely as any favorite to come out flat after steamrolling through the ACC tournanment (and the whole ACC, really).  I like the Hurricanes to come in focused and demolish Pacific

Florida vs Northwestern State U142

With a total this high, both teams typically have to be scoring consistently to hit the Over, and with Florida’s suffocating defense I think it’s a real long shot to expect NSU to hit the 60 mark.  Florida may hit the 80s but I don’t see it going much higher than that.  This one probably ends up looking like 78-55 or so, which keeps us below the cap

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March 20, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Madness, Day 1: Picks ATS (03.21.2013)

do you know who this man is? of course you don't, he doesn't win in March

do you know who this man is? of course you don’t, and that probably won’t change today

Let the Madness begin!  Scrap the pool (your aunt will beat you anyway) and focus on individual games.  The real “first” round is my favorite for betting.  With Vegas fearing upsets, some of the spreads are artificially low and others are ripe to get blown away.  4 picks for Thursday’s games and 4 more to come on Friday.

Marquette -3 vs. Davidson

Arizona – 4.5 vs Belmont

Every year, there one or two disproportionate spreads relative to seed differences, and almost every year, the favorite takes care of business.  Old Rick Byrd just can’t see to take advantage of the low spreads, having fallen victim to Georgetown and Wisconsin each of the last 2 years by a combined 29 points with spreads of 2.5 and 4, respectively. Maybe the 3rd time’s the charm for Rick but I like my odds with Sean Miller.  As for Marquette and Davidson, I don’t think Steph Curry has eligibility left and can’t see Davidson shocking the world this season.

Memphis +1 vs. St Marys

I’m not buying Ken Pom’s assessment that St. Mary’s is the country’s 18th best team and thus the favorite over a Memphis team that has only 4 losses on the season, all to quality opponents in VCU, Minnesota, Louisville, and Xavier.  Memphis has the athletes and defensive principles to shut down Matthew Dellavedova and move on to face Michigan State.

Michigan -11 vs. South Dakota State

The Wolverines have been an absolutely terrible on backers’ bottom lines the second half of the season (2-10 ATS since February began), and I’ve taken my share of lumps with them.  But with the home crowd having their back and an opponent ranking near the bottom of D-1 in defensive efficiency, it’s a good spot for Trey Burke and the boys to run up the score.

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March 17, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Big Ten Tournament Picks ATS: Day 4 (03.17.2013)

Aaron Craft and Deshaun Thomas lead what could become a dangerous championship sleeper in OSU

Aaron Craft and Deshaun Thomas lead what could become a dangerous championship sleeper in OSU

We head into championship Sunday 6-4 ATS and guaranteed not to lose money.  One game will decide whether we make a nice profit or simply pay the vig.

Ohio State pk vs Wisconsin

Wisconsin has proven this season they’ll shut down an offensive juggernaut that ignores defense, but how will they fare against a more defensive minded squad? Picking against the Badgers (again), let’s hope 3rd time is the charm

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March 16, 2013 By 1 Comment

Big Ten Tournament Picks ATS: Day 3 (03.16.2013)

Jordan Hulls has promised to get a better haircut if IU wins, but no promises on getting a better face

Jordan Hulls has promised to get a better haircut if IU wins, but no promises on getting a better face

5-3 ATS heading into today.  Unfortunately, there will be no winners in the battle of Darth Vader (Tom Crean) vs Team Dumb-it-Down

Indiana – 6 vs Wisconsin

Picking the (supposedly) superior team to take care of Bo Ryan backfired yesterday, and let’s face it: you’ve always got to account for the fact that the Badgers might be able to dumb the game down enough to win.  Indiana does have an 11 game losing streak working against it, but this team really doesn’t compare to the pretenders that Bloomington has trotted out in the past.  May the better team win, and cover.

Ohio State -1.5 vs Michigan State

It’s time to give the Buckeyes their due.  This team isn’t nearly as dangerous as the version of the last two years, but Motta has these guys giving their A game each and every night.  This is a battle of very comparable teams built on the same principles.  The difference?  One team has DeShaun Thomas

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March 15, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Big Ten Tournament Picks ATS: Day 2 (03.15.2013)

so you're telling me I can play a top 10 team to win against these 2 guys? sign me up

so you’re telling me I can play a top 10 team to win against these 2 guys? sign me up

Great start to the tournament (3-1 ATS) and 4 more games today

Michigan -2.5 vs Wisconsin

The last time these two teams squared off with the Wolverines laying 3, I got burned by Brust, and the Wolverines could never shake off the tough loss, closing out the regular season 1-7 ATS.  Can we call this a do over?  I still attest that the Badgers are overrated (kenpom.com has them as 11th) and the difference between these two team is more in the 5-6 range on a neutral court.  Trey Burke isn’t going to let his team lose to Wisconsin again, lay the very affordable field goal.

Nebraska +13.5 vs Ohio State

With it’s hard-nosed defensive mentality and all of one scorer in its arsenal, this version of the Buckeyes is not designed to blow teams out.  While Nebraska was fortunate to have gotten Bad and Lifeless Purdue on Thursday night, the win is a nice one for Tim Miles and we can expect the Huskers confidence to be flying high.  Expect something in the 58-48 range and Nebraska just barely slips below the threshold.

Indiana vs Illinois U65 (1st Half)

I don’t have a strong lean on this one, but I can see this one closing out very close to the 9.5.  So I”ll play the cold-net theory and hope the Hoosiers Big Ten title hangover lasts into today’s first half.  After Illini’s 51 point outburst yesterday, we can expect its nets to not exactly be on fire either.  Looking for a 31-26 1st half or so

Iowa +5 vs Michigan State

Gut play here.  Just get the feeling that the Hawks are going to give Sparty a game.

Filed Under: ATS Picks, Big 10 Hoops Picks, College Basketball
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