Last March, I read about one sharp’s strategy for betting 1 /16 seed matchups in the NCAA tournament. He’d take the first half line at 1 unit; if it hit, the betting ends. If it missed, he’d put two units on the second half line. The idea is that with such a large discrepancy in talent between the 1st seed and the 16th seed, the 1st seed would unquestionably win at least one of the halves. While Heat-Celtics/Pacers/Knicks isn’t exactly UNC-Vermont, you’d be sitting pretty if you’d applied to same logic to Miami during this year’s playoff run. There’s been only 1 of 12 games when the Heat hasn’t covered the first or second half line this postseason, and if you’d played the system in each game with a standard unit of $100, you’d be up $740 at this point.
Is it safe to take this strategy with the Heat for the remainder of the Celtics series? Unless you’re a delusional C’s fan, it’s pretty obvious that these two teams are nowhere close in talent, and Miami is the hotter squad right now as well (The Celtics didn’t exactly light the world on fire by allowing the lowly Sixers to take them to seven games). It’s hard to see the Celtics putting out the Heat flame and begin dominating the series themselves.
If you don’t feel like getting systemized, leave the first half alone and keep a keen eye out for the second half line. Miami is 8-4 ATS against the second half number these playoffs, including a 5-1 ATS mark when not covering the 1st half. The last 4 games have been especially dominant, going 4-0 ATS in the second half and outscoring their opponents by 67 points.