Conference Chalk

hopefully CJ Watson feels especially dissed by the significant drop of the spread

I’ve always loved the NBA playoffs, but my love has gone up exponentially since I started tracking the spreads a few years back.  You can play on momentum, matchups, and forgot about guys smoking just a little too much reefer the night before.  Everyone comes to play, no “4 games in 5 days” variables, just mano-a-mano.

Bulls -6 vs Sixers

My tears for Derrick Rose are all dried up, and I’m ready to embrace the Rose-less Bulls.  If there’s any condolence, Vegas is generously valuing the drop from Rose to CJ Watson at 3.5 points, and we’re all of a sudden looking at the NBA’s best regular season team (without Rose for much of it, let us not forget) laying a very manageable 6 against the over matched Sixers.  While I can’t completely overlook the shock factor that the players are all dealing with at some level, the value difference between these two teams in the Second city is still more than 6.  Great value here, ride Da Bulls

Hawks – 4.5 vs Celtics

No Rondo or Allen? Seems like a low number for an Atlanta team that is 11-4 ATS since March 30th.  Larry Drew’s Hawks have been a pesky playoff opponent the last two years, I like them to go up 2-nill in the series.

hopefully we have better luck with the C's than LD

It’s been  over 3 weeks since I shamefully vuudu’d Tom izzo, and a lot has transpired since then, not the least of which is the symptoms of my gambling withdrawal:

• Zeke is out at head coach of Florida International, but not after leaving us a nice tip on his one trip to our shop
• Strike One, Scott Drew
• Our 2012-13 cover boy has been crowed: DeShaun Thomas is staying at Ohio State.  I believe he’ll be a better pro than Sullinger, but the pay at OSU is still competitive
• The NBA is 2 weeks away from playoffs.  Let’s start betting The League

Celtics -3 vs Hawks

If you watched them take care of the Heat Tuesday night then you might be inclined to side with me.  Kevin Garnett looked better than I’d seen him in years, and there’s no tougher team mentally in this league than this group of veterans.  The C’s are playing like an elite NBA unit right now and somehow they’re laying a very cover-able amount at 3.  Saw somewhere a stat that had the home team i 13-6 ATS in the last 19 games of this rivalry.  Ride the hot hand

is this what we'll be seeing come April?

No time for a write up so just giving you the picks:

Michigan State -7 vs St. Louis

The more I watch MSU, the more convinced I become that they might actually win this thing.

North Carolina -8 vs Creighton

Carolina still remains my pick to win it all – I expect all business from the Tar Heels today

Norfolk State +14.5 vs Florida

That’s an awful lot of points to give a team that just knocked a 2 seed…

no, this isn't a Buckeye blog. But Deshaun Thomas is awesome

A hit or miss day on Friday and an especially bad one for the 6 point favorites.  Losing the MSU Under in the waning seconds wasn’t too pleasant either.  7-5-1 so far and still in the black, so no complaints.  It’s time to begin scaling things back focusing in on specific plays.

New Mexico +1.5 vs Louisville

The Lobos are 24-7 ATS this season – the most wins against the number of any D-1 team since 2008 when the same New Mexico program went 24-8 ATS.  Shouldn’t that tell you all you need to know?  If not, the metrics on the court prove they’re a solid team, ranking 34th in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency according to kenpom.com.  While Louisville also brings an elite defensive effort (ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency), the Cardinals mediocrity on offense (120th) doesn’t give me a warm and fuzzy on their chances.  Give me New Mexico in a minor upset.

Ohio State -7.5 vs Gonzaga

I can’t exactly say the stars are aligning for this pick, with the ‘Zags coming off a dominant win over West Virginia and Ohio State looking very disinterested in their win over 15 seed U.  But I still believe OSU is one of the 4 elite teams in the country (UNC, Kentucky, OSU, and MSU if you’re keeping track) and teams of this ilk should handle teams like Gonzaga.  Side question – has Deshaun Thomas supplanted Jared Sullinger as OSU’s best player?  If I’m running an NBA team, I’d take Baby Lebron…

for the cover....

William Buford – the anti point shaver.  Just when it looked like the Buckeyes had completely caughed up the cover on what should have been a 35 point win (seriously – did Sullinger smoke a blunt before the game?), Buford stepped up and nailed two garbage time 3s to propel his team past the requisite 17.5.  We ended up 3-1-1 on the day and have a lot of action today.  Overconfident?  Absolutely.

TRUST THE TRUSTWORTHY

Florida State -6 vs St. Bonaventure I’ll stop short at calling the ‘Noles this year’s UConn because they don’t have a star like Kemba Walker, but dangerous, hot, and a 3 seed was a profitable combo in 2011.

Michigan -5.5 vs Ohio John Belien, we trust you, and you’ve never let us down.

Michigan State vs LIU U155 Izzo doesn’t want this one to get over 140, and in this David vs Goliath, Goliath has his way

LET’S NOT GET CARRIED AWAY, BETTING PUBLIC

Georgetown -3 vs Belmont Let’s not forget this is still a #3 vs #14 game, and it seems like every time there’s a game like this where everyone picks the dog, it angers the big boy and they come out rolling.  I don’t love Georgetown in the tournament, but c’mon.  Prove it to me, Belmont.

FADE TEXAS, WHETHER IT WORKS OR NOT

Rick Barnes, looking more ghost-like every year

Cincinnati -3 vs Texas I’d never make a bet in this range just to go against a team, but I’ve been firing artillery at the Longhorns all year long, and at 10-18 ATS let’s just say it’s been the right thing to do.  Cincinnati post-Huggins is a program that I’ve never known how to feel about, but I’ll admit, Mick Cronin has impressed me this season.  The Bearcats have had a really nice season and I don’t expect it to end until at least Sunday.

CHALK AND TOBACCO

North Carolina -14.5 vs Vermont
Duke -11.5 vs Lehigh

Manageable spreads for marquee brands/coaches. Lock it in.

AT THE END OF THE DAY I’M A HOMER

Purdue +1 vs St Mary’s Hard for me to be totally objective, but Purdue plays like a really, really good mid-major.  A bunch of undersized guys who shoot the 3 really well but struggle playing D.  Does St. Mary’s really have a player better than Robbie Hummel or a collection of guys who can get hot like the Boilers?  Matt Painter’s team has struggled against the elite this season but has dominated teams in their class and below.

only getting 15.5 against a #1 seed? UNC-Asheville head coach Eddie Biedenbach doesn't get it either

College Hoops madness, 70 degree weather, St. Patrick’s Day – it’s a good thing this isn’t an everyday combination, 0r everyone but the books would be broke and living at AA.  If you managed to get out of work today I commend you – grab a beer and turn the TV to CBS around noon.

I’ve had numerous friends and followers promise to tail me during the Big Dance, and my message to them has been consistent…during the first round, play the #1 seeds.  Over the last five years, 1 seeds are 14-6 ATS in first (I will never call it second) round games.  If you want to go mindless, play all four 1 seeds and forget about the rest.  You’ll likely go 3-1 and worst case 2-2.

CHALK CHALK CHALK

Syracuse -15.5 vs UNC-Asheville Fab Melo’s suspension- Syracuse’s pain, Orange first round backer’s gain.  People are now weary of ‘Cuse and we have a fairly unprecedented spread below 18 in the 1/16 matchup.  Did people forget that Syracuse goes 8-9 deep?  Or that they’ve had a week to think about their loss and are very likely in the mood to open up a can?  Spread is too low and I’m waiting to hear why this won’t be an ass-kicking.

Ohio State -17.5 vs Loyola-Maryland The Buckeyes are playing great basketball, and have enough firepower to sleep walk for 30 minutes, turn it on for 10, and call it a 23 point win.  I don’t even think it’ll come to that.  Getting slapped by Michigan State has surely led to this team having a chip on its shoulder.  I can’t say I know a ton about Loyola-MD, but I’m going to go out on a limb and suppose they don’t have anyone who can match up with Sullinger (or Thomas, or Buford).  This one will be a cover at halftime.

EASY, MID-MAJOR GUY

question his recruiting techniques all you want, but with five 4 stars and two 5 stars on the roster, the Bears could make a serious run

Indiana -6.5 vs New Mexico State I’m hearing a fair amount of love for the Aggies from the pundits, but I’m not buying it.  IU is a legitimate top 20 team and maybe a top 10 offense, and coming off a post season drought like they are you know they’re going to be ready to bury New Mexico State.  I’m sure Marvin Menzie’s team has some game for their domain, but do you really expect them to compete at this level?  let’s not get carried away with the mid-major love.

Baylor -8 vs South Dakota State Understood that the Bears’ stock dropped like a lead balloon after back-to-back, mid-February losses to Kansas and Missouri, but let’s not forget how mega-talented these guys are and did pull off two impressive wins in the Big 12 tournament (Kansas and Kansas State).  8 is a value and since everyone seems afraid to bet on Baylor right now, use the low spread to your advantage.

MY FAVORITE CINDERELLA?  THOUGHT YOU’D NEVER ASK

Murray State -3.5 vs Colorado State I believe in the Racers, one of the pedigree mid majors out there and a team that’s happened to get 3-0 ATS for me this seasons.  Would Colorado State go 30-1 in any conference?  I doubt it, and that in and of itself is enough to tell you who is on the right side of this.

We only -6? shit, son - I got that in fourteen minutes

Is there a hotter team than Florida State right now?  I’m certainly not afraid of two field goals.

Florida st -6 vs St Bonaventure

becoming my favorite by the minute…Sorry Bonnies, you may have been able to take Tu Holloway’s money, but this is a whole different dance

Indiana -7 vs New Mexico St

My favorite Big-12 passing attack, Indiana will run up about 90 on a team like this…can’t wait to see the price on the over

Can i borrow another 2k Mr. Mason?

Baylor -7.5 vs South Dakota St

Why is this so low?

Virginia +3.5 vs Florida

Then again, I am probably 0-6 combined with these teams….Tony Bennett will likely be too intimidating

we're 8 point dogs and down by 9...clank

Let’s get a fews thing out of the way…

• Varez Ward owes me $200.  The Alabama game on February 7th is right in the cross-hairs of the FBI investigation and happens to be a game in which I took the Auburn money line
• St. Elmo’s liquor inventory surely took a hit last night from Bill Carmody after Northwestern’s choke in the last 90 seconds.  That was likely the biggest game in Northwestern’s not-so vaunted history, and even a Purple-hater like myself had to feel bad for anyone associated with that program.
• The Bruce Weber era is over.  I’m upset, only because there isn’t another benchmark program Purdue has owned like they have Illinois.  We’ll have to find another quality road win somewhere else ongoing I suppose.
• I know this is out of nowhere…but Mike Wilbon, can you stop playing the self-defecating Chicago fan, please?  The city has 8 titles over the last 22 years in all major sports but football and the Bears do have a token super bowl appearance in that span.  Quit acting like we are the most deprived sports fans on the planet

Today’s Big Ten picks…

Game 1 – 11:00 EST
Iowa +11.5 vs Michigan State
The Spartans are limping into the tournament – fresh off a beating at IU and a home choke-job to Ohio State, MSU isn’t playing its best basketball of the season, and with Branden Dawson out, the team isn’t at full strength.  Iowa is frisky and will bring their best game of the season.  11.5 is too high here and I like the Hawkeyes to stay within the number

Game 2 – 1:30 EST
Indiana -1 vs Wisconsin
The Hoosiers are playing exceptional basketball right now (4 straight covers) and having played yesterday will be a little warmer than the Badgers.  Losing Verdell Jones hurts a bit, but he wasn’t even a starter and was probably the 5th or 6th best player on his team anyway.  Ride the hot hand that’ll be backed by a pro-Hoosier crowd.

Game 3 – 5:30 EST
Michigan -5.5  vs Minnesota
I’m not entirely sure how to feel about this one.  Minnesota can be scrappy and will be feeling good about themselves, and has the benefit of being a bit warmer than the Gophers.  I can see this one being close for 38 minutes then Michigan pulling out a 6 point win.

Game 4 – 8:00 EST
Purdue +7.5 vs Ohio State
Purdue is playing its best basketball of the season and gave the Buckeyes all they could handle in Columbus the last time they squared off.  On paper, Sullinger should rip them to shreds down below but if the Johnsons played as well as they did against Nebraska and Byrd and Smith continue to shoot well, Purdue will keep this one close and could steal the win.

you want to know how I f**ing feel about the conference tournament, huh?

While conference tournaments are a charade and exist for one reason (money), even the staunchest of the old-school (Bob Knight being the exception) have to admit they’re pretty fun.  There are few things better in American sports than taking March Thursdays and Friday afternoons off and taking in the action, and you just can’t do it the right without having a few dollars on the line.  Today I’ll focus exclusively on my Big Ten roots and my spirit will be in Indianapolis

Game 1 – 11:30 EST
Iowa +1.5 vs Illinois
I love this matchup because it’s two teams whose results relative to expectations couldn’t be further apart. Illinois is probably the conference’s biggest underacheving program at the moment, and lame duck coaches usually don’t fare well in betting circles. Iowa may only be 16-15,

do I look prepared to you? I mean is that a serious question?

and not above a home loss to Nebraska, but it’s safe to say Hawkeye faithful feel pretty good about Fran McCafferey’s progress. Iowa needs just one conference tournament win to cement a good season, expect to see them get this today.

Game 2 – 1:55 EST
Indiana -12 vs Penn State
The Hoosiers come in playing very well, having won their last 3 by 11+ points and covering each.   IU is the basketball equivalent of a good, high powered spread offense, which means that while a good defense might have their number, they should be able to go off on teams without the horses to hang.  Pat Chambers squad surely falls into the latter category.  Classic double digit chalk game falls right into my wheelhouse…lay the points!

Game 3 – 5:30 EST
Northwestern -2.5 vs Minnesota
Tough, tough game to predict, as both of these teams needs this win to have any chance of an NCAA tournament bid, the talent is very comparable, and they’ve split two games so far this season. For the Gophers, this February – March is looking eerily similar to last year’s

for those of you who tune in to watch Doc Sadler's face get red, your viewing window for the week will be a small one

February-March, which happened to end with a first round loss in the Big Ten tournament to Northwestern. History repeats itself and the ‘Cats cover

Game 4 – 7:55 EST
Purdue -9.5 vs Nebraska
The same analogy can be applied to Purdue as Indiana (high-powered spread offense), and while Indiana may be Baylor to Purdue’s Missouri, we can all agree that Doc Sadler’s Kansas is going to get spanked. Slightly more value here than the Indiana game, Purdue’s been playing well, so I’ll stick with my mantra…In Painter We Trust.

3-1 on the 5* Picks…

Purdue -11.5 vs Penn State

Fresh off a road upset in Ann Arbor and playing probably their best basketball of the year, the Boilermakers are a safe bet against child-molester U. Robbie Hummel senior night and there won’t be a dry eye in the place